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Falcon 9 Successful – Lessons From Formula One

Hawthorne / Los Angeles County based SpaceX is celebrating a monumental breakthrough today after a successful first launch of its Falcon 9 rocket.

I followed the launch via video feed from Cape Canaveral this morning. At first I was disappointed when the initial launch attempt resulted in a lock-down just at the moment of ignition. I thought for sure it was a scrub. But the launch window was still open. After the countdown clock was reset, everything worked well on the second try. About 10 minutes later, the upper stage with a mock-up of the proposed Dragon crew capsule entered into a low Earth orbit.

This was the inaugural flight of Falcon 9, intended for testing only. What does it mean?

First of all, SpaceX is again proving the doubters wrong. It has shown that a relatively new, relatively small company can successfully design, build and fly a launch vehicle into space. It does so better, faster and cheaper than NASA, which is so stuck in a quagmire of politics, personal maneuvering and a bureaucratic approach to engineering and innovation that it has completely failed to come up with any new launch vehicle in 25 years.

As if it were big news that the remaining three Space Shuttles, with their system history of 25 years of service (and 2 fatal accidents) are more than ready for their final flights to a museum. Nor should it be a big surprise that without the Shuttle and without any alternatives, the U.S. again lacks the capacity for manned flights to space. This means that the U.S. has no autonomous access to the ISS. In 25 years of shuttle operations, NASA could not come up with anything flightworthy?

And the aerospace giants, such as Boeing and Lockheed-Martin? They had no motivation to design anything new and cheaper. For what? To make their existing satellite launch hardware obsolete? Conveniently, they have a captive market for satellite launches. That’s because U.S. law prohibits the launch of many U.S. payloads on foreign launch vehicles. It’s a matter of “national security”, we are told. How come the Europeans are less concerned about that? They all partner with each other and with Russia to launch their payloads.

Manned flights? A crew capsule? Perhaps the aerospace giants could have been given funding to make their satellite launch vehicles (or derivatives) safe enough for human flight. (I suspect NASA and its political backers wanted none of that).

There is an interesting parallel in Formula 1 motor racing. History has shown that small, agile racing teams, with factory sponsorship and with a small, dynamic workforce are overall outperforming teams run by large car manufacturers.

In the crazy world of high-tech motorsports, there is intense competition. Teams must work around the clock to continuously innovate, learn from mistakes, outmaneuver the opponents and adapt to changes. Every race is different, and new challenges (and regulations) appear all the time.

Whoever can adapt the fastest is the most likely to arrive first at the finish line. On the racing circuit, the big car companies are like bulls racing against greyhounds. Not even Fiat-owned Ferrari is an exception. Aware that Ferrari is a national obsession and sacred to Italians, Fiat bosses are smart enough to leave it largely alone. Ferrari’s engineers and technical managers have broad decision making powers and are not micromanaged by the Fiat-Board and bean counters.

Yes, one will often find the name plates of well known automobile manufacturers on engines and other critical components. But this does not mean that Mercedes-Benz or Ford really do the R&D for these highly specialized machines. They often hire contractors — small, agile teams of experts — to solve specific problems and come up with engineering solutions, in the least amount of time. Examples of such specialty engineering firms are Cosworth and Ilmor, both in the UK, and Dallara in Italy.

This kind of structure and engineering management is exactly what is needed if we want to achieve a drop in cost, along with more reliability, in space transportation. NASA, I am afraid, is in its current state incapable of this kind of agile management and risk-taking approach. I speculate that if NASA entered a team in Formula 1, it could be initially competitive by hiring experts from other teams. But it would spend a multiple of other teams to do so and fall behind after a few years. (Oh, how I wish to see everyone on the race track!)

Meanwhile, the future for SpaceX glistens with rocket fuel right now. Of course, one successful launch doth not make a reliable launch vehicle. A lot of further tests will be needed until Falcon 9 could be deemed safe enough to fly humans to the ISS, which is the eventual goal.

If successful, SpaceX will be able to do this in less time and for a lot less money than NASA’s ill conceived Constellation program which, in typical NASA fashion, remains stuck in the mud.

Addendum June 7, 2010: In a press release today, SpaceX claims that it developed the entire Falcon 9 system, the Dragon spacecraft and the launch hardware for what it would cost NASA to build just the Ares 1 launch tower. SpaceX has only about 1,000 employees to date.

Please also see my earlier, related post on NASA’s lingering Constellation program.

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12 Events That Would Change Everything

Someone at Scientific American had a magnificent idea: come up with a list of 12 plausible events with the biggest potential to shake up our world.

It is not difficult to identify such monumental events in the past, but harder than it seems when we try to gauge the relative importance (and likelihood) of things to come.

Here is what Scientific American came up with for an interactive web-only special:

1. Polar meltdown
2. The proof for additional dimensions
3. Proof for extraterrestrial life
4. An exchange of nuclear strikes
5. The creation of fully synthetic life
6. Superconducitvity at room temperature
7.  Machines demonstrating self-awareness
8. Cloning of a human
9. A really large earthquake along the Pacific Rim
10. Usable fusion reactors
11. A collision with a large asteroid
12. A deadly pandemic

A great list! Except, I don’t think human cloning is a big deal. We already have nature’s way of producing genetically identical humans (identical twins). So perhaps I would replace No. 8 with any of the following:

• Ability to switch off the biological aging mechanism
• Construction of a bionic uterus; extra-corporal gestation
• A working theory uniting Relativity & Quantum Mechanics
• Drugs which significantly decrease the need for sleep
• Fully reversible vasectomies and tubal ligations
• Ability to grow organs and tissues from stem cells
• Solid evidence for / against the life of Jesus Christ
• Technical applications for Quantum Entanglement

Now that I think about it, I’d like to expand the entire list! Food for thought? What would you add or remove?

For more in-depth information on the items on Scientific American’s list, please follow the link below. I seriously doubt that it will run equally well on all systems and browsers, but it is well worth the try.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=interactive-12-events

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One Big Hole

Click to enlarge. Photo: Reuters

Since I was a boy, I’ve had a fascination with earth holes, tunnels, lava tubes and caves. I think I’ve always been curious to find out what lies beneath. This Reuters picture from yesterday is simply amazing!

Over the weekend, a giant sinkhole opened up in Guatamala City as a result of Tropical Storm Agatha. The sinkhole swallowed a whole garment factory, but apparently nobody was hurt. All in all, Guatemala is not faring well. More than 125,000 people were evacuated, 152 are dead and 100 are reported missing. The Los Angeles Times has the story.

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Memorial Day – On Sale?

Today, the United States of America calls upon its citizens to honor its lost military service members. This should be a somber occasion, and I deeply loathe the obsession with partying and “Memorial Day sales” at the malls that have come to dominate the majority’s attention.

Do we really need to stick a “for sale” sign on everything?

The U.S. is currently engaged in two military campaigns, dubbed “Iraqi Freedom” and “Enduring Freedom”. According to U.S. Central Command, the number of American casualties resulting from these campaigns is 5461 until today. (A complete database of the fallen can be found at http://militarytimes.com/valor/).

Here is more about the history of Memorial Day.

Too often, we learn about military conflict as a collective narrative as told by statistics and numbers, and recorded in history books written and edited by those who emerged victoriously. But as Mark Twain did, I believe that it is more important to write about the stories of men, rather than about the story of mankind.

As a journalist, I am concerned that we are not doing enough to record the personal stories of those who were directly engaged and affected. We are in danger of losing these stories forever.

The number of living World War I veterans is now down to a handful of ancient people spread out over the world. Most of them are infirm. Whatever has not been recorded so far is now lost forever.

We still have a chance with World War II veterans. The U.S. once had 16 million of them. Today, there are only about 2.5 million left. Of those, 1,000 are dying every day, and this rate will accelerate sharply in the coming years.

We must keep in mind that the annual death rate for veterans is connected to the military rank they held at the time of their service. The reason is that military rank is usually associated with age and experience. Therefore, the higher a veteran’s military rank (and the higher his decision making powers and scope of experiences) were at the time of service, the older he would be today. This would place him in an age group with a higher death rate.

What this means for us as documentarians is that we are rapidly losing access to the decision makers, and that we will be limited to interviewing enlisted men and lower ranking veterans only. Unless we act quickly, their stories too will never be told again.

Several venerable organizations, such as the Veterans History Project at the Library of Congress and National World War II Museum in New Orleans are trying hard to preserve the personal histories of veterans, but their efforts are a drop in the bucket.

I think private initiative is the key. Those of us who have family members or personal friends who served should do our very best to get them to write down or record their stories by electronic means.

We should become repositories and custodians of their experiences and memorabilia. Luckily, modern information technology makes all this much easier and cheaper. Almost anyone can now make digital video or audio recordings, and it is very easy to share these with the entire world.

I know from personal experience that it is often very difficult to get old veterans to talk about their wartime experience, particularly if they were full of losses and trauma. But there is too much to be lost not to try!

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My Dilemma

Although I have no particular affinity for rats, this cartoon could be about me. Oh, the joys of the information age.

Click to enlarge. Cartoon by Stephan Pastis, 2010

This cartoon was available for free download. The creator, Stephan Pastis, is a widely syndicated cartoon artist.

Stephan Pastis’ blog

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Cellphone Abuse

I am extremely  conscientious and careful when handling any kind of machine or device. But I have to confess that cellphones are the exception. Without intention, I seem to single these things out for crass abuse. (And I wonder what Freud would say to that.)

In the past, I’ve subjected my cellphones to extreme heat and cold, vibrating motorcycles, beach sand and salt, sunlight, x-ray scanners, high humidity and a great number of bumps and falls. And yesterday I took my torturous ways to new heights while shooting pictures in the Spacecraft Fabrication Facility (or Building 170) of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

I was on a catwalk at least 15 feet above the factory floor where I took this shot:

Using sophisticated machining tools, JPL's Spacecraft Fabrication Facility builds highly complex mechanical, developmental and flight hardware for unmanned spacecraft. Photo: Reinhard Kargl

Leaning against the handrail to stabilize myself, the phone was dislodged from its belt holster and entered into a free fall. I could watch it getting smaller and smaller on its way down. Good-bye! Producing a most unpleasant sound, it smashed into the concrete floor beneath. I believe I even saw it bounce a few times!

Certain that this phone was wrecked, I didn’t even bother to climb back down to retrieve the debris before I finished taking pictures.

But when I finally reached the crash site, I was most surprised to find the phone not only (mostly) in one piece. It was still on! And …… working! The day after, I am still testing all the functions rather suspiciously — but so far there are no problems whatsoever.

According to my calculations, the phone must have hit concrete with a final velocity of 9.5 m/s (or 21.3 miles per hour, or 34.28 hm/h), after a free fall of almost one second. Not bad!

My Noka 6085 after surviving a head-on collision with a concrete floor with over 21 mph.

Given my dysfunctional relationship with communication devices and after having read and learned that Nokia makes some of the most robust standard cellphones on the market, I’ve been strictly a loyal Nokia guy since birth (or the dawn of the cellphone age, whichever came later).

Sure, Nokia no longer makes the coolest phones on the market. That distinction clearly belongs — in my personal opinion — to the iPhone line. But I figured that the short life expectancy of a “smart” (?) phone in my hands would not make it worth the investment. Because they are less robust than “bricks”, I’ve even resisted flip-phones until recently.

This little Nokia 6085 on the other hand left me impressed.

I hope that Nokia won’t even try to to be “cool”, but will simply offer phones that work: robust, functional, with good sound quality and replaceable batteries.

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New: Popular Science For iPad

The first magazines are now rolling out digital editions for the iPad. Among the pioneers is a magazine for which I have been a contributing author: Popular Science.

Founded in 1872, the print edition currently has about 1.4 million subscribers. It has been translated into 30 languages and is sold in at least 45 countries.

I am excited! With an estimated 1.8 million iPads sold since April 3, it looks like Apple has another champion in its stable. The iPad could change magazine and newspaper publishing the way the iPod has changed music retailing.

Unlike previous digital readers such the Amazon KindleBarnes & Noble’s Nook, and the Sony Reader, Apple’s iPad has a color screen and a much more user friendly, intuitive interface. Turning pages is reminiscent of flipping real paper. This is the first device really suitable for displaying magazine pages.

Although I will always prefer paper, I could not possibly ever have enough storage space for all the magazines I own or would like to keep. Being able to carry a whole, searchable library in my briefcase would be heaven-sent.

But what I am deeply unhappy about is the price Bonnier Group is charging for the downloads. (Bonnier purchased the magazine in 2007 from Time Inc.).

$4.99 an issue? Are you kidding? That’s the same as a paper copy at the newsstand! And there is currently no discounted annual subscription. Come on! You are not marketing print magazines that way! (Introductory 1-year subscription offers for the print edition can get as cheap as $12! One meager buck a month! You could probably pay for it by looking for lost change on the sidewalk.

Not good. I hope that if sales for the iPad edition are not impressive, those in charge at Bonnier will realize that the culprit is not the lack of demand, but their unrealistic pricing policy!

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